TomPaine.com - Bird Flu Blues

TomPaine.com - Bird Flu Blues: "Last week, we learned that deadly avian flu has spread from Asia to Europe, poised to become the next human influenza pandemic—perhaps even more deadly than the 1918 flu, which killed 20-50 million people worldwide. Leaks from a U.S. government report revealed that our country is utterly unprepared for such a calamity. And a new scientific study proved that the 1918 flu jumped directly to humans from birds—as might today’s encroaching avian flu strain, known as H5N1.

In other words, of all the natural and manmade disasters that have plagued humankind in the past year, something worse may be just around the corner: a global epidemic of lethal influenza long feared by public health experts and infectious diseases specialists. If that happens, the Bush team will be on the line as never before. If the administration handles this challenge correctly, it could lead the world in preventing unnecessary deaths and actually saving lives. If it fails, millions here and abroad could perish; the wrenching accounts from the 9/11 Commission could pale before the heartbreaking tales from the Pandemic Influenza Commission.

Today, according to the World Health Organization, a flu pandemic could kill 150 million worldwide—including, in a worst case scenario, 2 million Americans. Simply put, such an outbreak is today’s number one worry among public health officials, especially because the H5N1 bird flu strain is extraordinarily virulent, both in birds and mammals. Human flu pandemics, sown in nature by viruses found in migrating aquatic birds, cannot be prevented. Over the past century, they have occurred about every 30 years. The last one took place in 1968—which means we’re overdue for the next. No matter where on earth a pandemic takes root, high speed transportation would guarantee its transcontinental spread within weeks. High speed communications would guarantee global panic within hours. Whatever the course of today’s H5N1, flu pandemics are inevitable."